5/5/15 Forecast — Texas
After a great day in deep south Texas near Fort Stockton, I am ready to get back into more familiar territory further north tomorrow near Lubbock and Vicinity.
I am on the road so I won’t be posting a lot of images, just my thoughts.
Upper Air:
Broad southwest flow will continue to be present over the southern plains Tuesday afternoon with an upper level low sitting out near the 4 corners region. Once again, flow will not be particularly strong, but should be supportive of supercells, with 500mb flow AOA 40kts and sufficient deep layer shear.
Surface:
Some low level response will occur as the low gets established amidst the longwave troughing. A dryline should sharpen somewhere generally along the I27 corridor tomorrow. Wherever the best instability and mid level winds fields intersect with this trough, is where I want to be!!
Complicating Factors:
- Morning convection
- There could be substantial convection ongoing.. This could leave boundaries favorable for storm interactions, or could keep instability from developing
- Instability
- Even without thunderstorms, mid level lapse rates will not be incredibly impressive
- Shear
- Shear will be supportive of supercells, but low level shear will not strengthen until evening.
Target:
It looks like based off current data the best threat for tornadoes will be from near Snyder, TX northwest to Lubbock, TX.
