After a very successful chase day in Texas, yet another chase looms on the horizon today Wednesday May 6th!
Broad southwest flow aloft will be the story again, with fairly decent moisture in place, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s across SW OK into TX, with low to mid 60’s across northern KS near the low/triple point area. There will ongoing convection in the morning, which of course will have an impact on how convection evolves in the afternoon.. Observations and convection models will be critical tools in the AM!
Believe there is two “targets”
I will likely play south, in the green area, in SW OK into TX, where better low level moisture will be present, in addition to stronger mid to anvil level winds, which may help with storm organization and longevity. Further north may have locally enhanced SRH with the triple point, but also some weaker flow aloft and a little less moisture to work with.
I will wake up early and see what things look like.. I think SW OK is the winner, and think we see storm initiation late afternoon south of 40 on the OK/TX border, maybe west of Mangum, OK.