As I’ve mentioned in my last few posts, it’s late April and the fact we are talking about severe weather shouldn’t be a shock to anyone! I’m on the road after a failed chase today in central Texas, so let’s get right to the data!
It’s not hard to see the wave that will be responsible for severe weather tomorrow, lurking to the southwest in southern Baja California.
Relatively deeper boundary layer moisture, compared to earlier season events, is working it’s way into the southern plains, as evidenced by 0z soundings.
Decent warm air advection is underway, as well as the aforementioned moisture transport. This could yield some elevated showers and storms later this evening and especially tomorrow morning across KS/OK. There is not a substantial focus however, so this threat is not as obvious as it was Thursday evening.
Regardless, there will be a substantial moisture and cirrus plume ahead of the approaching wave. Instability is almost guaranteed to be a problem, especially across Oklahoma. The best chance of decent instability is going to be on either side of the showers/storms that develop in the morning.
The latest RAP forecast depicts this problem well, with 2 areas of potentially higher instability.
Convection should develop by mid to late afternoon ahead of the incoming wave, most likely first near the deepening low/warm frontal boundary across central/northern Kansas. Assuming instability develops, development southward on the dryline would occur late afternoon as well.
By evening, low level shear profiles will become highly supportive of tornadoes, some possibly significant, but details and questions about instability and storm evolution make this threat unclear at this time.
I plan to play the area where I expect there to be enough clearing. There are two potential areas. One is in central Kansas, the other is further south near the Red River on the OK/TX border. I am picking the north target right now due to more classic veering wind profiles, better terrain and more manageable storm motion. But if this area is socked in clouds and precip, I will go south.