Wednesday still appears to be a potentially ominous day across the southern plains as the threat for significant, damaging hail and a few strong tornadoes exists across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and western portions of Missouri.
This is the latest wording from the NWS Wichita, KS
CERTAINLY THINK THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL OF
2 INCHES OR GREATER AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT WINDS. 0-3KM SHEAR ALSO
SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT…ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AND SURFACE WINDS VEER SOME FORM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 23-
24Z. 0-8KM SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO THAT DEVELOPS…MAY END UP
STAYING ON THE GROUND FOR AWHILE…WITH A POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADO.
Concerns and caveats:
1) While significant severe weather is probable with any storm that develops in the warm, moist air in KS/MO/OK, there will not be a large number of storms. This should not be thought of as an “outbreak”, as the amount of storms will be limited by warm air aloft.
2) There will be a round of storms in the late morning hours. The atmosphere will have to “reload”, as in warm up and destabilize again before severe storms form in the afternoon. Sometimes this destabilization is not able to occur in time and storms are weaker than forecast.
Here is the current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:
Current Model Data:
Current data suggests that the atmosphere will be able to recover in the wake of morning convection before a second round of storms fire along the dryline in the afternoon. The greatest risk for severe weather appears to be clustered around the I35 corridor in south central KS into north central OK.
Another update as time permits… I am out chasing today in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas and will stay somewhere tonight and be ready for tomorrow!