Get the red flags, a tropical system is a comin’! In all seriousness, another serious flooding situation is setting up across the southern plains as a tropical disturbance (possibly Tropical Storm Bill, soon) and associated moisture feed landfall and move northeast into the Midwest. In addition to flooding, a conditional threat of tornadoes and possibly some strong wind gusts will exist along and east of the track of the surface low. Both of these potential hazards will materialize during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday (6/16/15).
Here is the latest statement from the NHC (National Hurricane Center).
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and found that the circulation was too poorly defined to qualify the system as a tropical cyclone. However, thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized this afternoon, and the low will very likely become a tropical storm this afternoon or this evening as it continues moving to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds with the low are estimated to be near 45 mph, and interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
As mentioned, a tornado threat may exist on the northeast side of the low pressure system as highlighted below. Here is some information from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center
..SRN OK INTO NRN TX UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NWD WITHIN THE UPPER-RIDGE WEAKNESS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION DRIFTS ACROSS NRN TX INTO OK...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND FIELDS ARE...A CONDITIONAL LOW-END TORNADO OR WIND THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MODELS DEPICTING A ZONE OF STRONGER SRH ALONG THE E OF THE LOW TRACK.