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Flooding in the Southern Plains… Again

Get the red flags, a tropical system is a comin’! In all seriousness, another serious flooding situation is setting up across the southern plains as a tropical disturbance (possibly Tropical Storm Bill, soon) and associated moisture feed landfall and move northeast into the Midwest. In addition to flooding, a conditional threat of tornadoes and possibly some strong wind gusts will exist along and east of the track of the surface low. Both of these potential hazards will materialize during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday (6/16/15).

NAM12/NAM4 60hr Rainfall
NAM12/NAM4 60hr Rainfall

 

NHC Tropical Outlook
NHC Tropical Outlook

 

5 Day QPF (WPC)
5 Day QPF (WPC)

 

Here is the latest statement from the NHC (National Hurricane Center).

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated
the broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this morning,
and found that the circulation was too poorly defined to qualify the
system as a tropical cyclone.  However, thunderstorm activity
continues to become better organized this afternoon, and the low
will very likely become a tropical storm this afternoon or this
evening as it continues moving to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds with the low are estimated to be near 45
mph, and interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana.  For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

 

As mentioned, a tornado threat may exist on the northeast side of the low pressure system as highlighted below. Here is some information from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center

..SRN OK INTO NRN TX  
  
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL  
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS FORECAST TO  
SLIDE NWD WITHIN THE UPPER-RIDGE WEAKNESS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION DRIFTS  
ACROSS NRN TX INTO OK...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY  
RAIN ARE LIKELY. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WIND FIELDS ARE...A  
CONDITIONAL LOW-END TORNADO OR WIND THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH  
MODELS DEPICTING A ZONE OF STRONGER SRH ALONG THE E OF THE LOW  
TRACK.  
Low Level SRH Tuesday
Low Level SRH Tuesday
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Brandon Sullivan

I am an entrepreneur, meteorologist and storm chaser. I travel and take captivating photos and videos across the world. If I'm not chasing, I'm at the gym. All opinions are my own and do not represent my employers or investments.

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