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5/5/15 Forecast — Texas

After a great day in deep south Texas near Fort Stockton, I am ready to get back into more familiar territory further north tomorrow near Lubbock and Vicinity.

I am on the road so I won’t be posting a lot of images, just my thoughts.

Upper Air: 

Broad southwest flow will continue to be present over the southern plains Tuesday afternoon with an upper level low sitting out near the 4 corners region. Once again, flow will not be particularly strong, but should be supportive of supercells, with 500mb flow AOA 40kts and sufficient deep layer shear.

Surface:

Some low level response will occur as the low gets established amidst the longwave troughing. A dryline should sharpen somewhere generally along the I27 corridor tomorrow. Wherever the best instability and mid level winds fields intersect with this trough, is where I want to be!!

Complicating Factors:

  • Morning convection
    • There could be substantial convection ongoing.. This could leave boundaries favorable for storm interactions, or could keep instability from developing
  • Instability
    • Even without thunderstorms, mid level lapse rates will not be incredibly impressive
  • Shear
    • Shear will be supportive of supercells, but low level shear will not strengthen until evening.

Target:

It looks like based off current data the best threat for tornadoes will be from near Snyder, TX northwest to Lubbock, TX.

5/5/15 Target
5/5/15 Target

 

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Brandon Sullivan

I am an entrepreneur, meteorologist and storm chaser. I travel and take captivating photos and videos across the world. If I'm not chasing, I'm at the gym. All opinions are my own and do not represent my employers or investments.

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